By Kaelin Rapport and Isha Weerasinghe

U.S. intervention in foreign countries can have long-lasting and irrevocable consequences, both here and abroad. Since the Trump Administration launched military strikes in Iran on February 28, the human and economic toll has been high. Hundreds of lives have been lost and scores of families in Iran have been displaced from their homes. And in the U.S., many people are struggling with a higher cost of living that could push individuals and families into economic insecurity. 

War has not yet been officially declared on Iran; likewise, Congress has not formally approved the war. Yet according to a hearing on April 29 where Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and other Pentagon officials briefed the House Armed Services Committee, the cost of these U.S.-initiated military strikes has been close to $25 billion. Others believe this estimate to be low, considering the Pentagon asked for $200 billion for the conflict. These estimates do not include the potential costs of lifetime disability benefits for the 55,000 troops deployed in the region who have been exposed to toxins and environmental hazards, or the costs to U.S residents. 

Oil and Food Costs

The U.S. blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has delayed and, in some cases, completely stopped cargo ships from reaching their destinations around the world. Overall transit through the Strait has been down by up to 95 percent. While oil shortages and rising prices have received widespread media attention, the delivery of other commodities integral to daily life for most Americans has also been halted. 

On April 27, U.N. Secretary-General António Guterres warned his colleagues of the looming food crisis spurred by the war. In addition to oil, the Strait of Hormuz is a significant global pathway in the distribution of liquified natural gas and fertilizers. Natural gas is a key component of nitrogen-based fertilizer production. Large amounts of sulfur, used in phosphatic fertilizer, is also produced in the region. Approximately 20 percent of the world’s oil supply and 33 percent of all seaborne fertilizer passes through the Strait. 

The Climate Solutions Lab estimates that U.S. households have spent approximately $245 more on gasoline and diesel since the beginning of the war. Higher fuel prices mean higher fertilizer production and supply chain costs. As a result, people will have to pay more to grow and package consumable products across the board. Oil is a key building block in petrochemicals, which are present in more than 95 percent of the plastic and synthetic materials used around the world. 

While grocery prices are already high, the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Consumer Price Index predicts that prices for all foods will increase by 2.9 percent this year. The longer the conflict continues, the higher prices will rise, especially if the Strait remains closed through the spring and summer planting seasons. Farmers will soon have to make decisions about their crops for 2027, and constrained access to quality fertilizers will negatively impact global food security for months to come. 

With no end to the blockade in sight, we are faced with a clear picture of the future: everyday items will be more expensive.

Debt and Mental Health

The total cost of the war could be as high as $1 trillion, or $5,000 per American household. Many people were already using their credit cards to cover basic needs like groceries prior to the war. Higher gas and food prices, as well as increased utility costs and steadily rising inflation rates will force them to rely on their credit cards even more. More people are carrying various forms of debt, including larger amounts of credit card debt, which can not only impact individual credit scores but also increases predatory lending and debt collection. This could result in higher car insurance premiums and higher deposits for utilities, and could also create barriers to housing and/or employment, as increased debt tends to erode a person’s economic mobility and security. 

All of these increased costs to food, gas, utilities, and housing affect individual and family mental health. According to the American Psychiatric Association, financial stability is a core social determinant of mental health. Equally concerning are the impacts of the ongoing military conflict on the well-being of soldiers abroad; their families and communities; the immigrant diaspora; and the general public. 

While Americans pay for war with their tax dollars, causing humanitarian and economic turmoil, our existing safety net has been decimated by H.R. 1, which will cut over $1.1 trillion in funding from health care and at least $186 billion from food assistance programs over the next decade. These cuts to state-level funding will have far-reaching consequences. One likely outcome is that states will divert funds away from education to fill the gaps in health care and food assistance coverage, which will drive young people with low incomes into the armed forces as other opportunities for upward economic mobility dry up. 

Past wars have had negative economic repercussions for U.S. residents. Most conflicts since World War II have been marked by increased debt, taxation and inflation, and decreased spending and investing during or after U.S. involvement. That trend continues with the War in Iran.  Increased energy and food costs will ensure that more families will go hungry, take on more debt, and further entrench populations with low incomes in poverty. The cycle of war continues: where policymakers approach each new conflict with amnesia about the lasting consequences, domestically and internationally, of the past ones.