Demographics of America’s Future Workforce

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Today’s Youth are America’s Workforce Pipeline

  • The teen and young adult population is growing fast, particularly among minorities and immigrant youth. By 2010, today’s teens and young adults will make up the largest segment of America’s labor force.

"By 2010, while 41 million new workers enter the workforce, a staggering 76 million workers will enter retirement. Herein lies a crisis or two." (“The Jobs Revolution: Changing How America Works,” by Steve Gunderson, Roberts Jones and Kathryn Scanland; email info@jobsrevolution.com.)


America’s Future Workforce Is More Diverse

  • From 1980 – 2000, the native workforce grew by 44 percent. From 2000 – 2020, the native workforce will not grow – zero percent growth. (“The Fifth Revolution: America’s Emerging Workforce;” power point presentation by Steve Gunderson, The Greystone Group, Inc., to the U.S. Conference of Mayors, January 2004.)
"Never before in American history has the economic success of our minorities been as important to the majority population as it will be in the next decade and beyond." (“The Jobs Revolution: Changing How America Works” by Steve Gunderson, Roberts Jones and Kathryn Scanland; email info@jobsrevolution.com.)


Are America’s Future Workers Prepared?

  • An estimated 3.8 million youth (18-24), roughly 15 percent of all young adults, are neither employed nor in school. Since 2000 alone, the ranks of these non-engaged young adults grew by 700,000, a 19 percent increase. (Kids Count Data Book, Annie E. Casey Foundation, 2004) http://www.aecf.org/kidscount/databook/essay.htm.)
  • In 2003, 28 percent of 8th grade students scored below the basic reading level and 33 percent of 8th grade students scored below the basic math level. (U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, The Nation’s Report Card Mathematics Highlights 2003, NCES 2004-451, Washington, DC: 2004, Figure 4, p. 8.)
  • Nationwide the overall graduation rate for the class of 2001 was 68 percent, with nearly one-third of all public high school students failing to graduate. (Who Graduates? Who Doesn’t?, Urban Institute, 2004, http://www.urban.org/url.cfm?ID=410934.)
  • Only half of the nation’s minority students graduate from high school along with their peers. For many groups – Latino, black, or Native American males – graduation rates are even lower. ( http://gseweb.harvard.edu/~hepg/dropoutsinamerica.html .)
  • According to a 2004 report by the Education Trust, only six out of ten students who begin college at four-year colleges and universities, earn a B.A. within six years. This translates into over 500,000 students a year failing to complete college, a figure that includes a disproportionate number of low-income and minority students. Just 26 percent of youth from low-income families earned a bachelor’s degree with six years.


Many young people are unprepared to meet the needs of employers or the challenges of higher education.
  • Over 75 percent of new jobs will require post-secondary education or training. (“The Fifth Revolution: America’s Emerging Workforce;” power point presentation by Steve Gunderson, The Greystone Group, Inc., to the U.S. Conference of Mayors, January 2004.)
  • American business currently spends more than $60 billion each year on training, much of that on remedial reading, writing, and mathematics. High school dropouts are unable to enter the workforce with the necessary skills to meet the demands of the nation’s global economy. (Alliance for Excellent Education fact sheet, http://www.all4ed.org/publications/Economy percent20Factoids percent20for percent20Website.doc )
  • Even in the midst of a “sluggish recovery” the U.S. Chamber of Commerce found that half of the businesses it surveyed considered it difficult to fill job openings. Less than one-third were confident that their employees would meet job requirements very well when looking ahead two years.
  • 42 percent of college instructors and 45 percent of employers say that high school graduates are not prepared for college and employment. (Peter D. Hart Research Associates/Public Opinions Strategies, (Rising to the Challenge: Are High School Graduates Prepared for College and Work? Prepared for Achieve, Inc., 2005)

Teen Employment Rates are at a Record Low
  • The current employment rates for teens and young adults are at historically record lows. The employment rate for teens declined from 36.8 percent in 2003 to 36.4 percent in 2004, the fourth consecutive year of decline in the teen employment rate.
  • The 2004 rate is the lowest in the 57 years that this data has been collected, despite overall job growth over the past few years. (Center for Labor Market Studies Northeastern University, http://www.nyec.org/Teen_Employment_jan_2005.pdf .)
  • According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, in May of 2004, the jobless rate for African-American teens was more than 32.5 percent, 19.7 percent for Hispanics teens and 15.7 percent for white teens, not seasonally adjusted.
  • The employment rate of teens decreases sharply with family income. Students who live in high-poverty neighborhoods and students from low-income families are much less likely to work than youth in higher-income communities or from higher-income families. (College Majors Handbook with Real Career Paths and Payoffs, Second Edition, Neeta P. Fogg, Ph.D., Paul E. Harrington, Ed.D., Thomas F. Harrington, Ph.D.; Jist Works: America’s Career Publisher.)
Those who have dropped out of school are at high risk of incarceration.
Education, Work Experience and Skills are Key to Preparing Future Workforce
  • High school graduates have much higher annual and lifetime earnings than dropouts and those with more years of schooling have higher earnings than those with less.
    • Young graduates of two-year degree programs earn 25 to 30 percent more per year than high school graduates with no degree.
    • Young bachelor’s degree holders earn about 75 percent more per year than their high-school-graduate counterparts.
    • The size of the earnings advantages grows larger over time.
    • The earnings of college graduates grow more rapidly for more years than the earnings of high school dropouts. (College Majors Handbook with Real Career Paths and Payoffs, Second Edition, Neeta P. Fogg, Ph.D., Paul E. Harrington, Ed.D., Thomas F. Harrington, Ph.D.; Jist Works: America’s Career Publisher.)
Early Work Experience Matters
Early work experience improves prospects for employability in the later teens and early 20s and develop both soft skills sought by employers (punctuality, dependability, team work, communication skills, customer service) and occupational skills. Work experience in high school for economically disadvantaged and minority youth increases their likelihood of graduation from high school relative to those who do not work at all.
  • Local areas with high levels of work among teenage women are characterized by lower teen pregnancy and birth rates.
  • Local areas with high levels of male teen employment are often, though not always, characterized by lower rates of delinquency and property crime among teens.
  • Youth who work more in high school and do not attend four-year colleges immediately upon graduation make much smoother transitions into the labor market upon graduation than their peers with little or no work experience.
  • Work experience in the junior/senior year adds to wages in the later teen years and to increased annual earnings through age 26 especially for those not attending four-year colleges. (“The Summer Job Market for U.S. Teens 2000 – 2003 and the Projected Job Outlook for the Summer of 2004,” power point presentation by Andrew Sum, Ph.D. & Iswar Khatiwada, Center for Labor Market Studies, Northeastern University, to the U.S. Conference of Mayors, June 2004.)